Introduction
During the next
decade, there will be dramatic demographic changes in the racial/ethnic
characteristics of students who are high school seniors in
The majority of NIU new freshmen each year come from the northern 23 counties in Illinois (NIU service region, see Figure 1): Boone, Bureau, Carroll, Cook, De Kalb, Du Page, Grundy, Henry, Jo Daviess, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall, Lake, LaSalle, Lee, McHenry, Ogle, Putnam, Rock Island, Stephenson, Whiteside, Will, and Winnebago. For instance, 91.8% of fall 2004 new freshmen were from this region. Further, 73.2% of fall 2004 new transfers were from community colleges in this region.
This report is
comprised of three sections. First, a
brief discussion of trends in the number of high school seniors will be
presented. Second, trends for the next
decade for the racial/ethnic composition of
The data in this report
represent an analysis of enrollment figures regarding school enrollments that
were obtained from the Illinois State Board of Education (ISBE). Historical enrollments for high school
seniors were obtained from ISBE.
Projections were made using a grade-progression method based on grade
progression ratios for enrollments from one grade to the next. The forecasted grade progression ratios were
obtained using SAS Time Series Forecasting system based on historical grade
progression ratios, with minor justifications.
The grade-progression method has been shown to be a particularly
effective method for making enrollment projections of high school seniors and
is used by the
It is important to emphasize that, throughout this report, the fall semesters being discussed are the fall semesters of the senior year of high school. Consequently, there would be a one-year lag in extrapolating these figures into college enrollments.
Figure 1 Geographic
Distribution of Fall 2003 High School
Seniors in Illinois _files/image002.gif)
Trends
in High School Seniors: Overall Enrollments
From 1981 to 1991, there
has been a dramatic decrease in the number of high school seniors; this
demographic trend has been the case both for
During the coming
decade, there will be modest decreases in the numbers of high school
seniors. For instance, between 2003 and
2014, the number of high school seniors in
As can be seen in Table 2, there are projected increases in the number of high school seniors over the next decade Those changes will result in numbers of high school seniors that are close or higher than historically has been the case. For the next eleven years, all the projected high school senior numbers are higher than the number of high school seniors in 2003.
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State
of
In addition to
evaluating overall enrollment trends for
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increases in the numbers of Hispanic and Asian-American high school seniors during the same time period. There is projected to be an 89.0% increase in the number of Hispanic high school seniors and a 29.4% increase in the number of Asian-American high school seniors. Finally, although their numbers are small, there will be a 48.7% increase in the number of American Indian/Alaska Native high school seniors.
Historical trends
and projected distributions of
With respect to projected high school senior enrollments for the fall 2003 to fall 2014 period, it can be seen that the percentage of high school seniors who are minority students will grow from 34.0% to 45.4%. The percentage of seniors who are white will decrease from 66.0% to 54.6% while the percentage of seniors who are African-American will remain the same
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(17.2%). On the other hand, the percentage of seniors who are Hispanic will increase from 12.3% to 22.6% and the percentage who are Asian-American will increase from 4.2% to 5.3%. Finally, the percentage of high school seniors who are American Indian/Alaska Native will increase from 0.2% to 0.3%.
The actual
historical numbers and projected numbers of high school seniors in
NIU
Service Region Senior Enrollments: Racial/Ethnic Trends
Many of the trends
described for the State of
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in Table 5. As can be seen, the number of white high school seniors during that time period is expected to show a decrease (15.2%). There is an anticipated decrease of 1.9% in African-American seniors from fall 2003 to fall 2014. However, there will be dramatic increases in the numbers of Hispanic in the NIU service region during the same period. There is projected to be an 84.8% increase in the number of Hispanic high school seniors. In the same period, there will be a 25.1% increase in the number of Asian-American high school seniors. Finally, although their numbers are small, there will be a 57.1% increase in the number of American Indian/Alaska Native high school seniors.
Historical trends and projected distributions of public high school seniors in the NIU service region by racial/ethnic group are presented in Table 6. Considering the fall 1989 to fall 2003 period, it can be seen that the percentage of high school seniors who were minority students was 32.8% in fall 1989 and that figure increased to 39.2% by fall 2003. More specifically,
20.0% of high school seniors in 1989 were African-American in 1989 and that figure decreased
to 17.5% in fall 2003. During the same time period, the percentage of high school seniors who
were Hispanic grew from 8.5% to 16.0%; the percentage of high school seniors who were Asian-American grew from 4.1% to 5.4%.
With respect to projected high school senior enrollments in the NIU service region for the fall 2003 to fall 2014 period, it can be seen that the percentage of high school seniors who are
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minority students will grow from 39.2% to 51.4%. The percentage of seniors who are white will decrease from 60.8% to 48.6%, while the percentage of seniors who are African-American will decrease slightly from 17.5% to 16.9%. On the other hand, the percentage of seniors who are Hispanic will increase from 16.0% to 27.8% and percentage who are Asian-American will increase from 5.4% to 6.4%. Finally, the percent of high school seniors who are American Indian/Alaska Native will increase from 0.2% to 0.3%.
The actual historical numbers and projected numbers of public high school seniors in the NIU service region for each minority racial/ethnic group are shown in Figure 5. It is projected that from 2007 on, Hispanic high school seniors will surpass African-Americans to become the largest minority group of high school seniors in the NIU service region. In addition, the anticipated percent increases in public high school seniors by racial/ethnic group are shown in Figure 6.
Implications
These data indicate that a number of demographic trends will be apparent during the next decade for high school seniors in the NIU service region. There will be dramatic changes in the racial/ethnic composition of public high school seniors in the NIU service region. There are large projected increases for the number of Hispanic seniors (84.8%) and Asian-American seniors (25.1%). There will be a small increase (1.9%) of African-American high school seniors. However, there is a 15.2% decrease for the number of White high school seniors in the same time period. By 2014, the public high school seniors in the NIU service region will be comprised of 48.6% White students, 16.9% African-American students, 27.8% Hispanic students, 6.4% Asian-American students, and 0.3% American Indian/Alaska Native students. By the fall semester of 2014, the percent of public high school seniors who are minority students will be 51.4%. From fall 2013 on, over half of the public high school seniors will be minority students.
These demographic trends will have a number of implications for Northern Illinois University. For instance, these trends suggest that the methods and materials used for student recruitment will need to be useful for prospective students and parents from a variety of racial/ethnic, language, and cultural backgrounds. It may become the case that we need to more fully consider issues such as language proficiency, immigrant/non-immigrant status, and duration time in the United States, and other cultural factors that influence minority students’ enrollment and achievement in college. Some of these issues have been continuously assessed through NIU’s participation in the HERI/UCLA Annual Freshmen Survey; however, the continued collection of Annual Freshmen Survey data might eventually need to be supplemented with
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further market research and survey research on the needs of newly enrolled students.
These demographic trends will also have implications for the types of services available for students. The further development of cultural and social supports and cultural events might enhance the university experience for the grater numbers of minority students that will be prospective NIU students.
Finally, these trends may also have implications for academic advising and instructional experience. For instance, the use of specific advising strategies and the selection of culturally relevant resource materials might enhance minority student enrollment and achievement in science and mathematics majors. Similarly, specific strategies may need to be developed to increase the selection of teaching majors by minority students.
Effective strategic planning now will provide us with the opportunity to prepare for the needs of our prospective students over the next decade. The information in this report summarizes the demographic trends that are projected for high school seniors in the State of Illinois and the NIU service region.